Wednesday, September 26, 2007

How Ron Paul wins the GOP nomination

A few months ago I had no idea who Congressman Ron Paul was. That all changed after the first Republican debate back in early May.

I had originally tuned in that night because I am a political junkie and I find politics and government very fascinating. I figured it would turn out with me wanting to throw something at my television because all 10 guys on the stage would say how we were going to win in Iraq and how they would try to scare me into voting for them. But something else happened. Something really big happened. For the first time in my life I was truly inspired by a Politician. I was shocked to hear a guy tell the truth and say what he truly believed instead of whatever he had to say to get elected. That night was introduced to Ron Paul.

Congressman Ron Paul is an obstetrician and served as a captain in the Air Force during the 1960's. He is against Abortion and for smaller governement. He is also one of the only Republicans to vote against the Iraq war in 2002. He has had a consistent voting record for over 16 years. You can see it here;
http://www.ontheissues.org/TX/Ron_Paul.htm

As you may already know the mainstream media doesn't cover Ron Paul very much. When they do it's usually negative. When he was interviewed by George Stephanophlous of ABC News he was told that he had no shot of winning. The secret is that the big corporations that own CNN, CBS, NBC, etc. don't want him to win. These same corporations are scared to death that Ron Paul would get elected and return the power back to the people instead of them. Would you like to see who the leaders of the corporations are donating money too?

Rudy Guiliani,
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/sector.asp?id=N00009908&cycle=2008

Mitt Romney,
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/sector.asp?id=N00000286&cycle=2008

Did you see a pattern there? Did you see the millions of dollars coming from the financial/real estate sector? Several millions. Now look at Ron Paul's

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/sector.asp?id=N00005906&cycle=2008

Congressman Paul also has some from the finance/real estate sector but did you notice it's in the thousands not millions like Romney and Guiliani. Also most of Paul's donations come from the category "other". That means regualr folks like you and I. Who do you want as President? Someone who owes favors to rich guys in charge of Multi-Billion dollar corporations? Not me.

Now on to my original point. Ron Paul CAN win the Republican nomination. What does Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckebee, Rudy Guiliani, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, and Alan Keyes all have in common? They are all pro-war. What was the biggest issue in the 2006 election? The war in Iraq. The GOP lost the majority in the Senate and Congress because of the war. Who is the only Republican who against the Iraq war? That's right, Ron Paul.

The people who vote in the primary are Republican and are there to elect a Republican to run against the Democrat nominee. The problem for the GOP candidates is that there are too many candidates running. This is where Ron Paul has an advantage. Let's say that at the first primary in New Hampshire (a liberal and anti-war state) that Ron Paul does a good job getting the youth and anti-war voters to the polls and winds up with 15% of the vote. In 2000 238,606 people voted in the New Hampshire primary. If Congressman Paul wins 15% that's 35,790 votes that cannot go to the other candidates. We will now say that the bottom tier candidates ;Brownback, Keyes, Hunter, and Tancredo receive 15% of the total vote. That's 35,790 other votes not going to the front runners. That leaves 167,026 votes in play to be split among five other candidates. 167,026 divided by 5 comes out to 33,405. Which is less votes than they number that Ron Paul would have.

I'm not naive to believe that the 5 front-tier candidates would split that number of votes evenly. But even if the front runner received 25% of those votes it would make Ron Paul the runner-up and force the media to cover him as a first-tier candidate. On any stage Congressman Paul wil make any other nominee look foolish. All he needs is an avenue to get his message out which this scenario would provide. Also, you will see other canidates bow out. This may or may not benefit Paul. But you also have to believe that more than 238,606 people will be voting in this primary which will probably benefit Paul the most. We've already seen he is good at organizing and being the only Anti-War candidate he has a good chance at turning out the vote.

It's a long-shot but not as long as it used to be. This scenario is not that far fetched. Watch next week to see how much money in donations Paul has raked in during the 3rd quarter. This campaign may be on the verge of something huge.

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Larry Sinclair comes clean about his crimial record. Read about it in the latest update.

http://mrsircy.blogspot.com/2008/03/larry-sinclair-comes-clean-about-his.html
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